What happens when capital flows all of a sudden stop and begin to reverse? From 2000 to 2008, one half of Europe (the PIIGS) received huge capital inflows from the other half as well as from overseas. In 2009, there was a sudden stop and a capital-account reversal, followed by an economic crisis. But, we've been here before. In a post at VOX, Oliver Accominotti and Barry Eichengreen compare this recent sudden stop to a similar episode which occurred in Europe in the late 1920s. The working paper on which this post is based can be found here. Hat tip - Chris Colvin.
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...