Finance: Past, Present and Future

There are six standout public events in my memory - I can still picture where I was when I heard the news and who told me the news. The events are the resignation of Margaret Thatcher as PM, the death of Princess Diana, the Omagh bomb, the tragic events of 9-11, the collapse of Lehman Brothers on 15 September 2008, and the results of the Brexit referendum. The collapse of Lehman Brothers a decade ago was the news that really brought home to ordinary people the scale of the financial crisis that was enveloping the world economy. Why was Lehman Brothers pushed into bankruptcy whereas AIG was rescued a day later? Prior to Lehman's difficulties, the Fed had rescued Bear Sterns in March 2008 and the U.S. Treasury had placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship and had injected substantial funds into both institutions. The standard narrative is that the U.S. government and the Fed refused to bail it out because it was illegal to do so. They also did not believe that i...

Election day has thankfully arrived and the months of hot air will hopefully come to an end. The U.S. Presidential race has been one of the most divisive and vitriolic campaigns  ever. The rise of Trump has been very interesting to say the least. Here is a populist from outside the political establishment, who has a large following among those left behind by globalisation and deindustrialisation. The political elite in the UK underestimated the strength of feeling among those left behind by globalisation and we got Brexit. We should not underestimate Trump and the constituency he represents. Trump's personality flaws should be enough to mean that he should  have no chance of winning, but such is the strength of anti-globalisation sentiment in the US that Trump, with his policies on immigration, trade and the Wall, will garner a substantial share of votes. Even if Hillary Clinton wins, the U.S. needs to implement policies that alleviate the pain felt by those left behind b...