What happens when a country's banking system shuts down? Ben Norman and Peter Zimmerman at Bank Underground (a blog written by Bank of England staff) answer this question by looking at the industrial dispute which hit the Irish banking system in May 1970 and lasted for about six months - click here to read their post. The closure of the banking system meant that cheques could not be cleared. So what happened? Irish people still wrote cheques and retailers (and publicans!) accepted cheques, playing a very important role in keeping the Irish economy going. There is little evidence that the strike had a detrimental effect on retail sales or the economy. However, when the strike ended, some cheques did bounce and retailers and publicans did suffer some losses. Subsequently, when there was a strike in 1976, retailers etc were more cautious about accepting cheques. One publican said that "when the banks start serving booze, we will start cashing cheques"! Maybe the publicans would have done a better job than the bankers in the run-up to 2008!
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...