Skip to main content

POTUS - Trump vs Clinton

Election day has thankfully arrived and the months of hot air will hopefully come to an end. The U.S. Presidential race has been one of the most divisive and vitriolic campaigns  ever. The rise of Trump has been very interesting to say the least. Here is a populist from outside the political establishment, who has a large following among those left behind by globalisation and deindustrialisation. The political elite in the UK underestimated the strength of feeling among those left behind by globalisation and we got Brexit. We should not underestimate Trump and the constituency he represents.

Trump's personality flaws should be enough to mean that he should  have no chance of winning, but such is the strength of anti-globalisation sentiment in the US that Trump, with his policies on immigration, trade and the Wall, will garner a substantial share of votes. Even if Hillary Clinton wins, the U.S. needs to implement policies that alleviate the pain felt by those left behind by globalisation. Failure to do so will mean the demise of the U.S. and the further undermining of its democracy.  

Image result for brexit times 10 trump
Labels:

Popular posts from this blog

How Valuable Are Connections?

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...
Read more

Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles

Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles, co-authored with my colleague Will Quinn , is forthcoming in August. It is published by Cambridge University Press and is available for pre-order at Amazon , Barnes and Noble , Waterstones and Cambridge University Press . 
Read more

Bank Runs in Greece

Deposit withdrawals in Greece have been substantial over the past two years.  However, the failure of Greece's politicians to form a coalition government has resulted in deposit withdrawals accelerating - click here and here for more on this.  Depositors are rightly concerned about the exit of Greece from the euro and the subsequent devaluation of their deposits.  The puzzle for me and many others is why are there so many deposits still remaining in the Greek banking system.  One reason is that the Greek banking system is being kept alive by massive injections of money from the ECB.  Will the ECB continue to support the Greek banking system in the face of a mass withdrawal of deposits?  I doubt that there is the political will in Germany for this as the Bundesbank already has a huge exposure to Greece (as well as Spain and Italy) through the ECB's internal Target 2 system.
Read more