The Dow Jones and FTSE 100 reached record levels on Friday. The Dow Jones is just shy of 20,000 - see FT video below. At the start of each year, pundits offer up their predictions for the year ahead. The consensus view seems to be that the US and UK markets are probably overvalued and that by the start of 2018, the Dow and FTSE will be at +/- 5%. from their current levels. However, we have no idea what 2017 is going to bring! Two things will have a major bearing on stock markets in 2017 - politics (Trump, Russia, euro, the French election, Turkey etc) and central bank decisions regarding interest rates. It might be a bumpy year for markets.
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...