Global stock markets and commodity prices have been on a downward trajectory over the past month. Why? Markets have been spooked by mixed economic signals coming from the US and more hawkish sentiment from central banks (interestingly central bankers have rowed back on this following the turbulence - click here). They have also been concerned by the state of the Eurozone, with even Germany entering the economic doldrums. The Ebola scare has even been blamed for the turbulence of the past few weeks. However, the greatest fear in financial markets is of a slowdown in China. A slowdown in China means a fall in demand for commodities (hence the fall in commodity prices) and a fall in demand for other goods and services (even university education!). Could China's debt-fuelled construction and economic boom be coming to an end?
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...