Is the global financial crisis entering a third phase? Phase 1 was when banks in the US, UK and several other major economies required taxpayers to rescue them. Phase 2 was the Eurozone crisis. Will Phase 3 be a financial crises across emerging markets? (see Bloomberg coverage here and Guardian coverage here). In recent weeks, currencies and stocks in emerging markets have been falling. In response, central banks in these economies, most notably in India, South Africa and Turkey, have been forced to increase interest rates. Why is this happening? How bad will it be? What effect will it have on economic growth in developed economies? Will an emerging market crisis strangle economic recovery in the US and UK? How will US monetary authorities respond to this? Will they continue to taper their bond-buying schemes? I have no doubts that all will be revealed in the coming months!
The Berkeley Earth Project , an independent study of global warming, has found that the earth has become a degree warmer over the past half century. However, the statistical uncertainty surrounding pre-1920 estimates makes it very hard to say much about long-term trends - click here for graph . This is one of my concerns with the global warming debate - we simply don't have trustworthy long-run data which looks at temperature changes over the last millennium (or two). My second concern with the global warming debate is that it is very hard to prove any sort of casual link between global warming and human activity. The scientists may be able to show correlation between global warming and our production of carbon dioxides etc., but correlation is not causation. My third concern with the debate is that those who are sceptical or agnostic are stereotyped as flat-earthers or intellectually-challenged crackpots. This only stifles debate and the progress of science itself.