Skip to main content

Getting Richer All the Time?

It seems to be a fact of our modern economies that the next generation is better off than the previous one. This wasn't the case for the most of human history, with humans trapped in the Malthusian trap. Nearly 85 years ago, J. M. Keynes wrote The Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren and predicted huge changes in our economic fortunes. He was right. In this essay, Daron Acemoglu discusses the 10 most important economic trends over the past 100 years, which have contributed to our ever-growing prosperity. 

However, will my six-year-old son and potential grandchildren live in a more prosperous world or have living standards plateaued? According to Kenneth Rogoff in this op-ed, there are four formidable challenges to future increases in living standards: (a) externalities such as global warming and fresh-water depletion; (b) inequality; (c) ageing populations; and (d) regulation of rapidly evolving technologies by ill-equipped governments. 

Thomas Malthus
  

Popular posts from this blog

Bitcoin Bubble?

According to Robert Shiller , speaking at Davos, Bitcoin is a perfect example of a bubble - story here . Shiller sees Bitcoin as a backwards step in the evolution of money.   George Selgin , a free banker, takes an opposing view - click here .  Although he doesn't believe that Bitcoin is money, he sees its development as a fascinating turn in the evolution of money. In particular, he lauds the fact that Bitcoin production is constrained and cannot be infinite. There is a short video below where Bitcoin explain how it works.

How Valuable Are Connections?

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne

Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles

Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles, co-authored with my colleague Will Quinn , is forthcoming in August. It is published by Cambridge University Press and is available for pre-order at Amazon , Barnes and Noble , Waterstones and Cambridge University Press .