The Eurozone has recently moved into deflationary territory (story here). But is deflation such a bad thing? Deflation has two major consequences. First, it means that debtors have to pay back more in real terms than they borrowed (inflation, on the other hand, helps debtors by reducing the real amount they have to repay on their loan). This, as was the case in the Great Depression of the 1930s, can have detrimental consequences for financial stability. Second, nominal wage rigidity makes it very hard for employers to reduce nominal wages in line with deflation. What does the historical experience with deflation have to say? Click here to read a BIS working paper by Michael Bordo and Andrew Filardo which looks at deflation in a historical perspective. They find that some deflation experiences have been good, other have been bad, and some have even been ugly.
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...