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Whither the Chinese Economy?

Tomorrow evening I will be speaking to the Mandarin Speakers Association in Belfast. The title of my talk is: Whither the Chinese Economy? My talk will very much be an outsider's perspective on the Chinese economy. I will also provide a long-run perspective by placing China's recent growth in the context of its long-run economic performance. In my talk I will be addressing the following three questions:

1. Why was China a laggard among major economies by 1800 and why did it remain so?
2. Why has China experienced unprecedented economic growth since 1978?
3. Can China avoid the 'Argentina trap'?  

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