The EU is looking to China to help with its financial mess. Although this says all sorts of things about Europe’s view of itself as superpower, the more interesting issue is why China is prepared to do this. Several theories abound. First, China’s economic miracle has a lot to do with export-led growth, and the EU is one of China’s main markets. If the EU implodes, this will have major consequences for China. Second, as part of it export-led growth policy, China holds huge reserves of foreign currencies and financial assets in order to keep the yuan undervalued. It therefore has reserves to invest, and European bonds may provide a good return if underpinned by German guarantees. Third, and possibly most worrying for global stability, is that China sees itself as a world superpower and wants to extend its soft power and influence by helping the EU.
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...