Owen Sims sent me this interesting article which looks at whether Twitter can predict the stock market. Johan Bollen, a computational social scientist, used algorithms to measure the mood and sentiment of tweets in order to to gauge the public mood. The measure he developed was correlated with subsequent movements in the stock market. This correlation may be spurious, but behavioural economists have increasingly been interested in how public sentiment affects asset markets and they have used the news media to get a handle on sentiment. See, for example, Paul Tetlock's work in this area - click here.
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...