Some economists like to think of economics as a physical or hard science, with immutable laws. Indeed, there is such a thing as econophysics, which applies the methods and theories of physics to economics! However, unlike hard sciences, economic theories are not subject to rigorous testing in controlled lab experiments. Even though some economists have developed the field of experimental economics, it cannot come close to the experiments in hard science. Economics is really a social science, and we should therefore be very careful in drawing parallels between the physical sciences and economics. Click here to read an article which highlights the dangers associated with the myth that economics is a science with fixed and accepted axioms (hat tip - Chris Colvin).
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...