Daron Acemoglu
has an interesting working paper entitled “The World our Grandchildren Will
Inherit: The Rights Revolution and Beyond”.
In it he surveys the 10 most important economic and social trends of the
past century and asks what the future holds for these trends. The 10 trends are:
1. The rights
revolution – the increase in civil and political rights of citizens. According to Acemoglu, this is the most
fundamental right as it underpins the other trends.
2. The sweep
of technology
3.
Unrelenting economic growth
4. Uneven
economic growth
5. The
transformation of work and wages
6. The health
revolution
7. Technology
without borders
8. War and
peace
9.
Counter-Enlightenment in politics
10.
Population explosion, resources and the environment
At the centre
of Acemoglu’s paper is the idea that technological change is at the root of
economic growth, and that technological change is shaped by political
institutions. Societies which are
pluralistic and have a broad-based distribution of political power, and where the
government has a monopoly of coercive power have higher economic growth and are
more prosperous. For this reason,
Acemoglu is not optimistic about China’s future prosperity unless they move
towards a more inclusive and broad-based polity.
Acemoglu’s paper
can be criticised on at least three counts.
First, he has a very Whiggish view of history. Second, there is the danger that the
distribution of political power becomes too wide and ultimately begins to
undermine democracy. Third, the rights
revolution has created a huge rent-seeking culture and industry. The question ultimately is whether this
industry is a parasite or a parasitoid.
There is also a review of Acemoglu's paper over at the NEP-HIS Blog.