Five years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, economists are still picking over the corpse of the financial system in an attempt to understand why the financial crisis happened. Some simply blame capitalism. Such a view is naive at best. For others,and I include myself in this camp, there probably wasn't enough capitalism. In this op-ed, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg, extremely insightful economists, point the finger of blame elsewhere - the discipline of economics. Economists had totally the wrong economic models in their toolkit - they had models which assumed that the economy works in a mechanistic way, much like a complex piece of machinery. This reduces economics to an engineering problem. But at its heart, economics is a social and political science. The real issue for me is not whether economists had the wrong models (they quite obviously did), but why did they have the wrong models?
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...