What investment strategy should investors pursue? Should investors employ a buy-and-hold strategy whereby they buy stocks and hold on to them for a long period or should they be active investors constantly buying and selling stocks? The latter strategy implies that investors discern movements in the business cycle, whereas the former implies that investors ignore short-term fluctuations and are more interested in the long-term trend of economic growth. What my study of financial history has taught me is that over the long-run, a large proportion of portfolio returns come from dividends and reinvesting those dividends in your portfolio. Click here to read a piece by Tim Hartford which discusses the investment performance of Neil Woodford, someone who has taken a long view on stocks and been very successful.
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak and Todd Mitton have written a paper on whether firms connected to Timothy Geithner benefited from these connections. They do so by looking at how stocks of these firms reacted to the announcement that he was a nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008. They find that there were large abnormal returns for connected firms. Below is the paper's abstract and the full paper is available here . The announcement of Timothy Geithner as nominee for Treasury Secretary in November 2008 produced a cumulative abnormal return for financial firms with which he had a connection. This return was about 6% after the first full day of trading and about 12% after ten trading days. There were subsequently abnormal negative returns for connected firms when news broke that Geithner's confirmation might be derailed by tax issues. Excess returns for connected firms may reflect the perceived impact of relying on the advice of a small ne...